Tiếng ViệtWith the recovery in various markets, it is forecasted that seafood exports in the fourth quarter could bring in around 2.4 billion USD, resulting in a total annual seafood export turnover of 9 billion USD
VASEP, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, reports that in the first 9 months of this year, the country’s seafood exports reached 6.6 billion USD, a decrease of 22.6% compared to the same period last year. Exports saw a significant decline in the first half of the year, with a 27% decrease. From June onward, the negative growth rate gradually narrowed. Specifically, in September, export volumes were only slightly lower (less than 5%) compared to the same period last year. As a result, the total turnover in the third quarter was only slightly lower (less than 12%) compared to the same period in 2022, making it the smallest decrease in the three quarters of the year.
The overall picture of exports shows that the export volumes of key products in the first 9 months have decreased more significantly compared to other species. Specifically, catfish exports saw the steepest decline at 31%, shrimp decreased by 26%, and tuna decreased by 24%. Meanwhile, exports of squid, octopus, blue swimmer crab, and surimi with shells decreased by 10-18%, while other sea fish species decreased by less than 8% compared to the same period in 2022.
In the third quarter, all three key product groups showed more positive signals, with the highest export turnover and the lowest negative growth rate since the beginning of the year. After a 28% decrease in the second quarter, shrimp exports were only slightly less (down by 13%) compared to the same period. Catfish had export figures slightly less (down by 12%), and tuna decreased by nearly 8%, compared to the respective figures of 41% and 31% in the second quarter.
The export of other sea fish species saw a reverse trend, with a 15% decline in the third quarter, after a 2% increase in the first quarter and a 9% decrease in the second quarter. According to experts, the shortage of raw materials and challenges related to IUU regulations may be some of the factors contributing to the difficulties in seafood exports. The most optimistic sign is the blue swimmer crab product, which experienced a significant increase in export turnover in the third quarter, surpassing the second quarter by over 1.5 times and showing a 2% increase compared to the same period last year.
Two Major Markets Show Promising Signals
According to Ms. Le Hang, Director of Communication at VASEP, the results of seafood exports in the third quarter have shown signs of recovery compared to the early months of the year, but there hasn’t been a strong breakthrough to indicate a stable trend in the near future. The reason for this is that the comparison base in the first half of 2022 was already low after a significant increase in the first half of 2022.
The extent of seafood export recovery in the coming period largely depends on two major markets: the United States and China. Both of these markets show positive signs in terms of demand. Orders from these markets are increasing again, but export prices remain lower than the same period last year.
For example, the average export price of frozen pangasius fillets to the US in the first 9 months of this year has continuously been 25-40% lower than the same period in 2022. Apart from other whitefish species such as tilapia, catfish, and pangasius, the export of pangasius to the US has to compete with the existing inventory from 2022. Experts predict that at least until 2024, the chances of a more optimistic recovery will be possible when the pressure on inventory is no longer significant.
Standardizing the Management of Tuna Harvesting and Exports
As for the Chinese market, not only Vietnam but many other exporting countries are also hoping for stable recovery post-Covid, especially around the autumn holiday season when Chinese demand tends to increase. However, many sources are targeting this market, leading to lower purchasing prices for Chinese importers. Nevertheless, this remains a potential destination for Vietnamese exporters, especially after China banned seafood imports from Japan.
With the gradual recovery from various markets, VASEP forecasts that seafood exports in the fourth quarter could bring in around 2.4 billion USD, equivalent to the same period last year, bringing the total seafood export value for 2023 to 9 billion USD, a decrease of 17% compared to 2022.
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